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Inventory Doesn’t Grow in May!

Residential inventory for SLO County (the 14 cities we track)
Sept 2007 – June 2009

While sales may have slowed a bit in May, the good news (for home sellers) is that inventory was lower than where it was at the beginning of May. But that’s looking at County-wide inventory. If you look at individual cities, you’ll see some mixed results.

For example, Cambria is having a tough time as the inventory rose to 133 properties, which is higher than any month in the past 2 years.

On the flip side, Atascadero is at their lowest level of inventory in the past 2 years.

Another indicator that I track is Months of Inventory (MoI) which shows how many months it would take to sell the current inventory based on the sales activity over the past 30 days. 6 months is considered a neutral market, under 6 months is a Sellers market, over 6 months is a Buyers market.

Atascadero’s low inventory and good sales activity dropped its MoI to 4.5 months. Nipomo also dropped below 6 months and is at 4.5 months as of June 1st. Caycuos had a slow May and jumped to 62 months. With the cities that don’t have a huge volume of sales (like Cayucos), you need to look at the MoI over multiple months to see if one particular month is just a blip. In the case of Cayucos, the MoI has been high every month since the beginning of this year. Morro Bay and Cambria also have high MoI indicators.

Does that mean Atascadero and Nipomo are Sellers markets? In other times I would say yes but with the foreclosure mess that exists today in addition to the bubble burst, Months of Inventory by itself does not tell the entire story of what is going on.

The inventory and MoI’s as of June 1st for individual cities have been updated on the site here:

Written by Keith Byrd - Go to Keith's Website/Profile